← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 61% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 17% | 17% | 5.89 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| NEC −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Calvin Verdonk · Willem II Tilburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kento Shiogai · NEC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rob Nizet · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Lachkar · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Raffael Behounek · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 122.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1545.80 | 1394.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.10 | -41.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.00 | -1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.54 |