← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 51% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 25% | 30% | 3.84 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Waalwijk +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 68% | 1.55 | value: +5% |
| Under | 38% | 32% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 24' | 🟨 | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 27' | ⚽ | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matisse Didden · FC Utrecht |
| 87' | ⚽ | David Min · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days | 664.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1423.89 | 1681.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.11 | 21.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 13.95 | 5.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.66 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.31 |