← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 48% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 26% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AFC Ajax +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paxten Aaronson · FC Utrecht |
| 52' | ⚽ | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 56' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | ⚽ | Paxten Aaronson · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 597.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1646.62 | 1790.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | 5.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 56.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 1.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.57 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.78 |