← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 49% | 61% | 1.94 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.46 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 23% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Utrecht −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Souffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht |
| 10' | 🟨 | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 17' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 18' | 🟨 | Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen |
| 32' | ⚽ | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alonzo Engwanda · FC Utrecht |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 590.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1653.18 | 1446.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.71 | 9.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 53.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 24.67 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.31 |