← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| NAC Breda +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda |
| 53' | ⚽ | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 69' | 🟨 | Boy Kemper · NAC Breda |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enric Llansana · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calvin Twigt · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1401.96 | 1581.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.50 | 28.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 70.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.32 |