← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| NEC win | 54% | 63% | 1.80 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.04 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 22% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Waalwijk −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| NEC −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand