← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 82% | 1.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.28 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 10% | 4% | 11.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Ajax −1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Leo Sauer · NAC Breda |
| 31' | 🟨 | Roy Kortsmit · NAC Breda |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 35' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 62' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
| 62' | 🟨 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kamal Sowah · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
| coach days | 340.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1785.62 | 1404.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.49 | 6.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.00 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 67.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.45 | — |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.27 |