← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 63% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 13% | 6.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand