← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 67% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.09 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 14% | 15% | 7.17 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 64% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 36% | 2.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Jakub Moder · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 39' | 🟨 | Givairo Read · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 57' | ⚽ | Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 61' | ⚽ | Oliver Antman · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 74' | ⚽ | Igor Paixão · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1818.56 | 1585.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.16 | 34.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 74.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 47.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 14.05 | 14.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.69 | — |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.20 |