← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 50% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Heracles win | 24% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Heracles +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.89 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gustaf Lagerbielke · FC Twente '65 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
| 30' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ivan Mesík · Heracles |
| 40' | 🟨 | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 71' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · FC Twente '65 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jannes Wieckhoff · Heracles |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sayfallah Ltaief · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| coach days | 29.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1456.24 | 1680.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.50 | -28.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 28.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 14.69 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.54 |