← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 26% | 30% | 3.69 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Faissal Al Mazyani · Waalwijk |
| 71' | 🟨 | Faissal Al Mazyani · Waalwijk |
| 71' | 🟥 | Faissal Al Mazyani · Waalwijk |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 1244.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1490.81 | 1431.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.44 | 17.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.09 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.09 | 26.04 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.77 |