← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Blank
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 50% | 53% | 1.94 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
| NEC win | 23% | 19% | 4.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| NEC +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 10' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · NEC |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ernest Poku · AZ |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kristijan Belić · AZ |
| 43' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · NEC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kento Shiogai · NEC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · NEC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| 85' |
| 🟨 |
| Denso Kasius · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 87.00 |
| 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1548.56 | 1710.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.60 | -21.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| league points | 29.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.19 | 13.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.22 |