← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 36% | 37% | 2.66 | fair |
| Almere City win | 35% | 39% | 2.77 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Almere City +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |