← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 37% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 31% | 37% | 3.05 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| NAC Breda +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 38% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Boyd Lucassen · NAC Breda |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Mats Seuntjens · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tika de Jonge · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tika de Jonge · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟥 | Tika de Jonge · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boy Kemper · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kamal Sowah · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romano Postema · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 301.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 4.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1415.85 | 1451.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.86 | 42.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 14.85 | 13.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -1.32 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 23.48 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.53 |