β Eredivisie 2024-25 Β· Sun, Mar 16, 03:45 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 49% | 57% | 1.97 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| AZ win | 25% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ β0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AFC Ajax β0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | π¨ | Kenneth Taylor Β· AFC Ajax |
| 32' | π¨ | Alexandre Penetra Β· AZ |
| 52' | β½ | Zico Buurmeester Β· AZ |
| 54' | π¨ | Kristijan BeliΔ Β· AZ |
| 58' | π¨ | Jordy Clasie Β· AZ |
| 58' | β½ | Anton Gaaei Β· AFC Ajax |
| 74' | π₯ | Anton Gaaei Β· AFC Ajax |
| 74' | π¨ | Alexandre Penetra Β· AZ |
| 74' | π₯ | Alexandre Penetra Β· AZ |
| 83' | β½ | Ibrahim Sadiq Β· AZ |
| 85' | β½ | Oliver Edvardsen Β· AFC Ajax |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 319.00 |
| 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1767.61 | 1707.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.29 | -20.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.90 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.63 |
| league points | 63.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.72 |