← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 34% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 42% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 58% | 2.02 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 14' | ⚽ | Igor Paixão · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 27' | 🟨 | Hwang In-Beom · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gernot Trauner · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 53' | ⚽ | Igor Paixão · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | ⚽ | Igor Paixão · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mees Hilgers · FC Twente '65 |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aymen Sliti · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 624.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1719.79 | 1820.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.09 | -20.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 46.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 14.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 24.43 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.54 |