← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 39% | 48% | 2.45 | value: +17% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 33% | 25% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · NEC |
| 50' | 🟥 | Lasse Schöne · NEC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | ⚽ | Brayann Pereira · NEC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bram Nuytinck · NEC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 75' | ⚽ | Oliver Antman · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kento Shiogai · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 27 |
| 4 | On target | 14 |
| 3 | Corners | 15 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 67.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1556.92 | 1581.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.26 | 2.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 74.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 26.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 25.53 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.95 |