← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Vos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 29% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 45% | 1.89 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Damian van der Haar · PEC Zwolle |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 9' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ivan Mesík · Heracles |
| 44' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 58' | ⚽ | Juho Talvitie · Heracles |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 1217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1446.76 | 1495.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.06 | 42.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.94 |