← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 51% | 2.14 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.49 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Miloš Luković · SC Heerenveen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kristijan Belić · AZ |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ilias Sebaoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Zico Buurmeester · AZ |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andries Noppert · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kees Smit · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Linday · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1480.85 | 1734.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.53 | 44.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 2.43 |