← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 28% | 20% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.60 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Alessio Da Cruz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ryan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard |
| 48' | 🟨 | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
| 58' | 🟨 | Édouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ivo Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Silvester van der Water · Waalwijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days |
| 608.00 |
| 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1434.66 | 1459.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.66 | -39.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 12.23 | 5.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.46 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 0.77 |