← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: J. van der Laan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AZ win | 75% | 70% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.72 | value: +11% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 8% | 11% | 12.00 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AZ −1.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Fortuna Sittard −1.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand