← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 65% | 66% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 15% | 13% | 6.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AFC Ajax −1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mika Godts · AFC Ajax |
| 56' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 67' | 🟥 | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.65 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
| coach days | 298.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1786.89 | 1558.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.26 | 14.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.80 | 74.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| league points | 54.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.73 | 8.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.77 | — |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.35 | 1.52 |