← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 47% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +10% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 28% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Twente '65 +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 64% | 1.73 | value: +11% |
| Under | 44% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Gustaf Lagerbielke · FC Twente '65 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Miloš Luković · SC Heerenveen |
| 35' | 🟥 | Bas Kuipers · FC Twente '65 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Michel Vlap · FC Twente '65 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Espen Van Ee · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · FC Twente '65 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Eser Gürbüz · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1474.15 | 1701.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.88 | 1.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.86 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.29 |