← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +3% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard +1.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| AFC Ajax +1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 52% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 48% | 2.52 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Kian Fitz-Jim · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard |
| 66' | 🟨 | Shawn Adewoye · Fortuna Sittard |
| 67' | 🟨 | Luuk Koopmans · Fortuna Sittard |
| 68' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oliver Edvardsen · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daley Sinkgraven · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Rasmussen · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 619.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1467.60 | 1774.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.44 | 15.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| league points | 26.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.87 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.46 |
| state index | -0.81 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.24 |