← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 36% | 26% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.74 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Naci Ünüvar · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1567.22 | 1703.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.05 | -5.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.10 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 14.73 | 2.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.96 |