← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 45% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 28% | 31% | 3.46 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hwang In-Beom · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 67' | ⚽ | Quinten Timber · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dávid Hancko · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Youri Regeer · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 277.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1764.64 | 1822.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.49 | -31.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 45.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 2.73 | 14.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 2.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 24.68 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 2.12 |