← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Blank
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 54% | 49% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 21% | 25% | 4.71 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Levi Smans · SC Heerenveen |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ivo Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luuk Koopmans · Fortuna Sittard |
| 82' | ⚽ | Eser Gürbüz · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Guth · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1476.15 | 1465.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.76 | -18.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.52 |