← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 32% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Utrecht +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 44' | ⚽ | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 55' | ⚽ | Anthony Descotte · FC Utrecht |
| 59' | ⚽ | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 1188.00 | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1500.44 | 1652.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.56 | -21.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 7.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.86 |