← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 39% | 2.36 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 31% | 34% | 3.27 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heracles −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 55% | 1.92 | value: +6% |
| Over | 49% | 45% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marvin Peersman · FC Groningen |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Romano Postema · FC Groningen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 62' | 🟥 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · FC Groningen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| coach days | 393.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1433.20 | 1395.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.76 | 3.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.96 |