← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.16 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| AZ −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.87 | value: +6% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Mike Eerdhuijzen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 72' | ⚽ | Shunsuke Mito · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Julian Baas · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Camiel Neghli · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mexx Meerdink · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arno Verschueren · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 3 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 391.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1718.54 | 1484.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.09 | -30.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 34.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 6.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.48 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.94 | — |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.50 |