← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 44% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 50% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 33' | ⚽ | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 54' | ⚽ | Josip Mitrović · Fortuna Sittard |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rosier Loreintz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Fortuna Sittard |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Fortuna Sittard |
| 74' | 🟥 | Mitchell Dijks · Fortuna Sittard |
| 80' | ⚽ | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 605.00 | 1182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1486.42 | 1479.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.83 | 4.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -1.51 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.06 |