← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.12 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 19% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Rosier Loreintz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rosier Loreintz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ryan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darijo Grujčić · Fortuna Sittard |
| 69' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · NEC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alessio Da Cruz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luuk Koopmans · Fortuna Sittard |
| 71' | ⚽ | Calvin Verdonk · NEC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Thomas Ouwejan · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 18.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1544.24 | 1498.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.69 | 22.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.86 | 8.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.58 |