← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 72% | 66% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.21 | value: +18% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 11% | 11.00 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Raffael Behounek · Willem II Tilburg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · Willem II Tilburg |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jeremy Bokila · Willem II Tilburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carel Eiting · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 561.00 | 499.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1700.05 | 1478.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.03 | -0.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | 0.98 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.80 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 21.68 | 20.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.07 |