← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 43% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Heracles win | 28% | 30% | 3.61 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heracles +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 45% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 55% | 2.06 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 29' | 🟨 | Mike Eerdhuijzen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 30' | 🟨 | Juho Talvitie · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Shunsuke Mito · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 70' | 🟨 | Suf Podgoreanu · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 12 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 376.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1410.95 | 1489.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.89 | -43.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 27.81 | 20.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.66 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.13 |