← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 14% | 17% | 7.15 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Sittard −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · FC Utrecht |
| 15' | 🟨 | Vasilis Barkas · FC Utrecht |
| 33' | 🟨 | Syb van Ottele · Fortuna Sittard |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alessio Da Cruz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 56' | ⚽ | Luka Tunjić · Fortuna Sittard |
| 57' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ryan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Min · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| ⚽ |
| Ezequiel Bullaude · Fortuna Sittard |
| 85' | ⚽ | Alessio Da Cruz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nick Viergever · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Édouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 478.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1668.90 | 1490.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | -5.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.84 |