← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 46% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 26% | 29% | 3.89 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| FC Twente '65 −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 62% | 1.86 | value: +15% |
| Under | 48% | 38% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 30' | 🟨 | Gustaf Lagerbielke · FC Twente '65 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · AZ |
| 48' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 53' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 65' | 🟨 | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 355.00 | 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1693.17 | 1708.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.37 | -10.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.94 | — |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.21 |