← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 63% | 60% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.52 | value: +7% |
| NAC Breda win | 16% | 16% | 6.37 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| NAC Breda −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand