← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 46% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.55 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 21% | 3.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| NAC Breda +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · NAC Breda |
| 30' | 🟨 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 71' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 76' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 85' | 🟨 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 85' | 🟥 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boy Kemper · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ruben van Bommel · AZ |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mees de Wit · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 197.00 | 349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1424.62 | 1688.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.81 | 24.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.05 | 3.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.58 |