← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Enric Llansana · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 9' | 🟥 | Enric Llansana · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 12' | ⚽ | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | ⚽ | Oliver Antman · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 88' | ⚽ | Adrian Blake · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paxten Aaronson · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Everink · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adrian Blake · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 39 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 471.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1674.11 | 1533.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.34 | 13.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 35.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.94 |