← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 84% | 88% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 9.69 | fair |
| Heracles win | 5% | 3% | 19.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Heracles −2.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Santiago Giménez · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 34' | 🟨 | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Santiago Giménez · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 43' | ⚽ | Shiloh 't Zand · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Santiago Giménez · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dávid Hancko · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Suf Podgoreanu · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 196.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1855.58 | 1412.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.09 | 4.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.78 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.30 | — |
| state index | 1.39 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.49 |