← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 56% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Almere City win | 20% | 26% | 4.90 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Almere City +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.86 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | ⚽ | Zidane Iqbal · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zidane Iqbal · FC Utrecht |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adi Nalić · Almere City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ruben Providence · Almere City |
| 86' | ⚽ | Logan Delaurier-Chaubet · Almere City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Ohio · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almere City | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Yanmar Stadion |
| coach days | 160.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1390.77 | 1667.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.20 | 25.19 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 6.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.04 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.17 |