← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| NEC win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 62% | 1.79 | value: +11% |
| Under | 46% | 38% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 6' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 10' | ⚽ | Enric Llansana · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 25' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 30' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · NEC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Antman · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days | 159.00 | 1620.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1524.70 | 1589.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.31 | -10.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 5.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 24.51 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.36 |