← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 57% | 64% | 1.70 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 20% | 15% | 4.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 44' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 61' | 🟨 | Max Bruns · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Bas Kuipers · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 519.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1724.04 | 1528.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.25 | -3.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 2.73 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 25.83 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.61 |