← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 39% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Willem II Tilburg −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
| 31' | ⚽ | Leo Sauer · NAC Breda |
| 53' | ⚽ | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jesse Bosch · Willem II Tilburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kyan Vaesen · Willem II Tilburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mickael Tirpan · Willem II Tilburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jeremy Bokila · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rob Nizet · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jeremy Bokila · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 450.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1479.10 | 1390.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.56 | 28.88 |
| eye test v1 | -1.54 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 14.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.50 |