← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 37% | 27% | 2.59 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 34% | 45% | 2.90 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Ezequiel Bullaude · Fortuna Sittard |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dylan Mbayo · PEC Zwolle |
| 57' | ⚽ | Damian van der Haar · PEC Zwolle |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dylan Mbayo · PEC Zwolle |
| 69' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rosier Loreintz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dylan Vente · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟥 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Ante Erceg · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1104.00 | 527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1465.51 | 1506.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.01 | 42.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.97 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.47 |