← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 64% | 1.72 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.91 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| AZ −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 66% | 1.81 | value: +19% |
| Under | 46% | 34% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Sven Mijnans · AZ |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 49' | ⚽ | Denso Kasius · AZ |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Denso Kasius · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Finn Stokkers · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 300.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1692.79 | 1526.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.98 | 32.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.54 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.90 |