← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 69% | 79% | 1.38 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.17 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 7% | 8.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 66% | 1.72 | value: +14% |
| Under | 44% | 34% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand