β Eredivisie 2024-25 Β· Sat, Oct 26, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. van der Laan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 34% | 2.33 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33% | 36% | 3.01 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.70 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SC Heerenveen β0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | β½ | Nikolai Soyset Hopland Β· SC Heerenveen |
| 8' | π¨ | PaweΕ Bochniewicz Β· SC Heerenveen |
| 9' | π¨ | Simon Olsson Β· SC Heerenveen |
| 58' | β½ | Jacob Trenskow Β· SC Heerenveen |
| 65' | π¨ | Espen Van Ee Β· SC Heerenveen |
| 71' | π¨ | Marvin Young Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 76' | π¨ | Luuk Brouwers Β· SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1475.78 | 1591.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.93 | -21.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 24.68 | 24.91 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.49 |