← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 58% | 44% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 38% | 4.02 | value: +53% |
| Waalwijk win | 19% | 18% | 5.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Waalwijk −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.08 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
| 13' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda |
| 37' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
| 40' | 🟨 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Fredrik Jensen · Waalwijk |
| 50' | 🟨 | Juan Castillo · Waalwijk |
| 57' | 🟨 | Faissal Al Mazyani · Waalwijk |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Leo Sauer · NAC Breda |
| 66' | 🟥 | Faissal Al Mazyani · Waalwijk |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 147.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1390.04 | 1395.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.63 | -21.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 6.14 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.95 |