← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 70% | 72% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.58 | fair |
| Heracles win | 13% | 13% | 8.00 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Ajax +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.73 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 14' | 🟨 | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 25' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 34' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 84' | 🟥 | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 88' | 🟨 | Christian Rasmussen · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 293.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 4.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1417.29 | 1719.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.88 | 18.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 14.09 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.39 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.78 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.81 |